2021.09.27 00:49 RetardedMonkey68 What
|submitted by RetardedMonkey68 to BitLifeApp [link] [comments]|
2021.09.27 00:49 moazzam0 Why $BRK.B's intrinsic value is over $420.69 per share
Berkshire is the most misunderstood mega cap, despite Buffett laying out how it works repeatedly and in detail. Berkshire analysts either analyze every piece of the company to derive a sum of the parts valuation or do a historical comparison to how the company traded at an average of 1.5x premium to book value and how Buffett himself will buy back shares if it goes under 1.3x. The first method ignores the forest for the trees, because the whole is much greater than the sum of its parts. The second method is just lazy and incorrect--why use a market-dependent metric or the valuation that's so low that Buffett himself would buy it over other opportunities in the market? Neither of these is the correct way to value Berkshire.
First, let's look at the investment portfolio. This component of Berkshire is not just a proxy for the stocks that it contains. This pool of liquid stocks is actively managed by the best investors in the world at no fee to you. Not only do they find great stocks to hold, but they also know when to sell them. And they always BTFD when they should. They have compounded Berkshire's insurance float (near-permanent pool of cash that Berkshire is paid to hold), its free cash flow, and its debt at a rate faster than the S&P 500 over any 10 year period. That gives shareholders quantifiable value far beyond the market value of Berkshire's portfolio. The best way to quantify that value is to discount its excess returns to the present. Side note: capital gains taxes do not need to be deducted from portfolio value because Berkshire defers them indefinitely if feasible and manages their capital gains tax bill to be less than half of free cash flow from operations in any given year. Since they are always buying and selling, capital gains taxes are built into their income tax line and its growth over time.
Second, let's see the interplay between Berkshire's insurance float vs actual debt and how they increase Berkshire's ability to return capital to shareholders. Berkshire has a huge, ever-growing pile of cash called insurance float that it is (on average) paid to hold by its insurance businesses. They actually carry this cash on the liabilities side of the balance sheet even though it is always growing, they owe it back to no one, and they get paid to hold it. What's more interesting is that this wonderful float is growing faster than their actual debt, and both are growing slower than the assets of the company. These asymmetric growth relationships between the float, debt, and overall assets, mean that Berkshire can use debt or float to return growing capital to shareholders while reducing its debt ratios! This is a source of return separate from free cash flows from operations or portfolio growth.
Third, we have Berkshire's reinvestment in the operations and tack-on acquisitions of its operating companies vs how this compounding is treated on the balance sheet. Every dollar Berkshire gets to reinvest into these world-class businesses gets used intelligently, accelerates free cash flow growth, and increases the size of Berkshire's private empire. However, all these businesses and the reinvestments into them are carried at-cost and minus depletion on Berkshire's balance sheet. The businesses are growing, making exponentially more money, but their balance sheet value is constant or diminishing. This growing disparity between accounting vs reality means that the carrying value of these businesses and their expanding operations is carried at a diminishing fraction vs its true value on Berkshire's balance sheet. This is the strongest argument against using a multiple of book value to value Berkshire.
To quantify and value these overlooked qualities of Berkshire, I came up with what I call Tangible Return, which is free cash flow minus income tax, plus net equity portfolio growth, and plus debt growth. I used debt growth in lieu of float growth as a more conservative measure, since float grows faster than debt. They both represent the excess capacity Berkshire has to return capital to shareholders above and beyond free cash flow and equity portfolio growth while reducing debt ratios. Anyway, here are the numbers for the last 10 years:
2011 - 2020 Growth of Berkshire Hathaway
Based on the CAGR of these growth metrics, I projected a conservative future for Berkshire for the next 80+ years. I reduced all the trailing 10 year CAGR's by 33% from the start and kept reducing them by 33% every 9-10 years to account for diminishing returns to scale. I wasn't more aggressive with reducing the CAGRs for scale limitations because Berkshire was already quite large during the 10 year period I used to derive the growth rates. In addition, the growth rates I used are not much different than macro trends like S&P 500 growth and GDP growth. The macro trends should be lower given Berkshire's entire business model is to beat them with better moats and profitable/uncallable leverage. Also, I used a discount rate of 8% due to the diversification, stability, and predictability of Berkshire vs the average S&P 500 company. Here are the numbers for the next 11 years:
2021 & Beyond Projected Growth and Valuation of Berkshire Hathaway
At first I was shocked to see that this analysis yielded a valuation over $1 Trillion, but the numbers, assumptions, and calculations all make sense to me. We're approaching an era for Berkshire that bears out the disparity between how analysts have valued the company vs how the BRK machine actually works. We are overdue for a rotation to stocks viewed as "value" according to this report published by Research Affiliates on 9/21/21. Moreover, the disparity of how BRK is valued vs how it actually works is only exaggerated by the $20+ billion per year of share repurchases. Now those repurchases make a lot more sense. Buffett is buying one dollar for 54 cents!
TL;DR: $BRK.B trades at $277.87 but is actually worth $523.15. If we apply a ~20% margin of safety, we get $420.69.
Disclosure: I'm holding and adding December 300-315 call spreads.
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2021.09.27 00:49 ElectrikAvenue1 😎Baby Doge Boss💼 fair-launched today & performing a Takeover of the Crypto Defi and NFT's Market! Baby Doge Boss is the smartest Doge in the world! Using his sharp eye for talent he has recruited an awesome marketing team, and we are soon to be the #1 Community Coin. Join the Takeover! Be a Boss!
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2021.09.27 00:49 Cosplay_bird168 Can anyone tell me why this was on Twitter? Also don’t know if this is the right subreddit
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2021.09.27 00:49 CDS_MechaCat Flag of Greece-O-Slavia
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2021.09.27 00:49 Rydisx Game list always this bad?
spent all day doing NM diablo and baal runs, public, no one ever joined a single one.
I sit and look at the game list..and it basically just cycles the same 20 or so 30+min games over and over. Never new ones..
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2021.09.27 00:49 hello-im-cora [WP] You live in the futuristic world of 3010. Due to an error in the time travel machine, you are sent to 1910 and that shy 1910s boy is sent to 3010. The time travel machine is broken and the scientists don't know how to fix it
2021.09.27 00:49 bigmax1209 I just went to my apartment and a thing popped up to "put down" and it put down a scorpion statue from Mortal Kombat
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2021.09.27 00:49 kshump Baerlic Brewing - Portland, Oregon
2021.09.27 00:49 kirahachi I really like hanging out with a group in university but I feel like I’m drifting apart from them too, what should I do?
I met a group of people that are attending my University on a public discord server in July (although it’s really only the friend group I’m talking about that actively uses it, so it’s basically semi-public), and I’ve been talking with them ever since. Before we all started attending classes we were all very active on the server and would hang out a lot. At first when we all started attending classes and they all moved into the dorm (out of this group, I’m the only one who is a long distance commuter—we are all freshmen and the rest are dorming). The server would still be active and we’d all chat. But since the school year has started it’s become increasingly less active. I still see the active group from the server at least twice a week and view that group as my friends on campus. However, I’m really worried that they might be starting to drift from me.
I’ve seen them hang out on and off campus through social media and I didn’t know that the group even made those plans to hang out on multiple occasions. I get that I can’t hang out for some of the extremely late at night stuff they’ve done since I still have to commute at the end of the day and late night driving is dangerous due to fatigue, but other activities they’ve done have taken place during the day when I could have gone and joined them if I were to be invited. On the discord I’ve tried to initiate activities (mainly eating food) and people have joined me, and I’ve also tried to join the activities they’ve made for the server as much as possible. Even beyond the activities some of the people have chatted with me (e.g: i waited for an uber to take me to my final destination for the night and they hung out with me and waited for the car to pick me up along with me after they noticed that when we split off I wasn’t immediately walking out of the restaurant we were just at).
The combined increasingly quietness of the discord server and the fact that I know that there’s been activities with that particular group of people that I wasn’t aware about until after the event happened has me really nervous for if we’re actually drifting or not. I had a lot of trouble making friends in high school/got socially excluded by the student body and was mostly a loner, and this is the first group of people I’ve felt comfortable on a friends-level around in YEARS. This whole fear of drifting is really reminding me of what happened in high school and I really don’t want a repeat of being a loner, especially now in University!
I joined a club recently and I attended a social mixer for it recently, and I met a lot of nice people there so I do have an option of some sort of social activity if the people I met on discord truly want to drift away from me (although it absolutely doesn’t feel the same as hanging out with the discord people right now). I really vibe with and enjoy hanging out with this discord group, and so I really want this friendship to work out/make it work. How should I be reading this social situation, and how should I respond to it/be able to get invited to these hang-outs that get organized off the server? Or am I just projecting my personal insecurities on a situation that’s actually not so bad as it may feel???
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2021.09.27 00:49 stoopidfuckinshit Central Station in the Journal of the Royal Architectural Institute of Canada, November 1943 issue.
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2021.09.27 00:49 AbhiSingh7 🍑
|submitted by AbhiSingh7 to jacanderson_NSFW [link] [comments]|
2021.09.27 00:49 WingedDrifter Adventures of Moth on Vacation: Hello, I am your local moth on vacation! I'm taking a trip through a Sky to scope out the local vacation spots! I'll post each place with my thoughts and a rating of 1-10! Give me some locations in the comments to check out! Open to oob too! :)
|submitted by WingedDrifter to SkyGame [link] [comments]|
2021.09.27 00:49 ConfusedHamlet Atheist messages from Egypt, Nigeria & more
|submitted by ConfusedHamlet to atheism [link] [comments]|
2021.09.27 00:49 Fit-Decision-4212 Anyone knows whick Sony model is it?
|submitted by Fit-Decision-4212 to IDmyCRT [link] [comments]|
2021.09.27 00:49 pulindadeshan Tokentanks
Tokentanks is amazing project so far. Their whitepaper and the roadmap is transparent. They have a good idea and great team to make this project will be success in the future. So good job and hope will be to the moon.
submitted by pulindadeshan to CryptoIndex_io [link] [comments]
2021.09.27 00:49 DEVIANT_ZOMBIE When u love trump , chicken and waffles but hate the mask mandate !
|submitted by DEVIANT_ZOMBIE to dankmemes [link] [comments]|
2021.09.27 00:49 Tecknola Explore!!!
|submitted by Tecknola to batonrouge [link] [comments]|
2021.09.27 00:49 FeedTheGodsYT First EVER Card Show Over @Pechanga Resort Casino
2021.09.27 00:49 Oi_Angelina Are there any women that go to concerts by themselves?
2021.09.27 00:49 WhispyWhirl "Minecraft Good Fortnite Bad", but taken to the next level. Includes Persona.
2021.09.27 00:49 Capable_Importance78 Pq ele n mete a cueca por dentro burro do carai
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2021.09.27 00:49 StuBergmann Two sigils to help me turn my life around
The left sigil is for discipline. The acorns and oak leaves represent strength and building a future for myself. The quills are to help me focus on writing every day.
The right sigil is for achieving my goals. The whispering aspen leaves represent fast growth, my family, and the souls of my ancestors, whom I hope will be proud of my one day.
I destroyed them with water and put the pulp outside so the paper can go back to the earth.
submitted by StuBergmann to magick [link] [comments]
2021.09.27 00:49 4erophia Port Blue's The Albatross EP Cover + Back Photo was Taken by Adam's Mom
| This isn't important at all, and people might know this already, but I wanted to share anyway.|
According to Discogs on The Albatross's front and back picture are taken by Joan Young, Adams mom.
Inside the credits says 'Photography by Joan Young' along with credits.
That's all :)
Credits on CD
The Front and Back Design of the CD
submitted by 4erophia to OWLCITY [link] [comments]
2021.09.27 00:49 briansonlyfriend 100% Embryonal Carcinoma - Stage IB - Seeking Advice/Opinion
9/9 - Appointment with Urologist, for a lump on my left testis. Had ultrasound same day
9/10 - Pre Op appointment
9/13 - Let Orchiectomy
9/20 - Pathology came back with the tumors being cancerous - 100% Embryonal Carcinoma
9/21 - CT Scans for the rest of the upper body - all came back 'perfect' - No signs of spreading
9/24 - Post Op appointment - Urologist suggests RPLND
I'm 27 years old, turning 28 in 2 days actually (what a great way to spend the bday). Noticed a large mass about 3 months ago, and as the timeline suggests above, I got it removed as quick as possible. Now the part where I am a little out of my element and just need some words or advice. My pathology report came back as such
Lymphovascular Invastion: Present
Pathologic Stage: mpT2 (So i think IB)
My blood markers came back normal (pre surgery and post surger)
Tumor Extension: Invades thorugh tunica albuginea and perforates tunica vaginalis
So after talking to the urologist, he mentions that after his convo with the oncologist that RPLND is the preferred next step. This is so they can send the lymph nodes off to pathology and try and tackle this head on with minimal treatment. However, I am a little concerned. The urologist mentions there is a 65% chance of spreading into those lymph nodes they want to remove and so surveillance isnt ideal. Additionally, as my blood markers were normal before and after, they cannot really rely on those either because nothing indicates a chance from the removal of the tumors.
I want to talk to an oncologist and ask for his opinion because as some others have stated on this forum, RPLND is quite a big procedure and if its not the best route, I dont want to put my body through something it doesn't need to. There is also a chance of chemo after the RPLND so, why not just do the chemo now?
I'm not trying to make a dumb decision here or a quick decision, I'm just scared, nervous and hoping some peoples words would help me when I talk to the urologist performing the RPLND or the oncologist etc.
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